Federal Fundraising - Tories Expand Their Lead

Poilievre's Conservatives continue to expand their fundraising lead in the second quarter.

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Overview

The second quarter of 2023 has continued the trend of Conservative dominance in the fundraising arena. With a whopping total of nearly $8 million raised in Q2 of 2023, the Conservatives remain well ahead of the incumbent Liberals who sit just shy of $3.2 million. The NDP stands further back at $1.37 million.

This isn’t necessarily surprising. The Conservative have been famous for their fundraising abilities in recent years as they dedicate a lot of resources in extracting even more out of their supporters. What is notable however is the fact the Conservatives have been gradually growing the amount by which they are outraising their opponents every quarter for the past three quarters.

In Q4 of 2022, the Conservatives raised $4.17 million more than the Liberals. In Q1 of this year it was $4.63 million and in the latest quarter it’s now $4.77 million. There is little doubt the Poilievre leadership has been the boon to their fundraising numbers.

For comparison, the Conservatives were only outraising the Liberals by $2 million at most between Q1 and Q3 2022, even being outraised by the Liberals in Q4 of 2021.

But lets breakdown the amount raised in Q2 of this year.

Nationally the fundraising totals for the most recent quarter are as follows:

• Conservatives: $7,960,000 ($4,919,000 from those donating $200 or more)

• Liberals: $3,190,000 ($2,084,607)

• NDP: $1,370,000 ($463,591)

• Greens: $408,300

• BQ: $239,500

As of this writing, the People’s Party of Canada still has not reported their fundraising numbers for Q2.

Let us take a look at the regional breakdown of last quarter’s fundraising. As a note, the following regional data only consider contributions from those who donated more than $200 in the given quarter. Elections Canada does not provide individual contributors geographical information if they donated $199 or less. However, it still paints an accurate picture of the current political landscape, at least in terms of fundraising.

So keep those bracketed numbers above in mind while we look to the regional breakdown.

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National map showing total donations from individuals contributing $200+ in Q2.

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Western Canada

Let’s start from the Pacific and work our way east.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives (as will become a running theme here) outraised every other party combined with $810K while the Liberals raised $241K and the NDP $125K.

The NDP pulled their largest share of those donating more than $200 in the quarter from British Columbia, accounting for 27%. The Conservatives didn’t do too badly here either with the province accounting for 16%.

Unsurprisingly, the Conservatives dominated in Alberta as they pulled in more than $1.3 million from the province while the Liberals were just shy of $146K. Alberta also made up more than a quarter of the Conservatives fundraising, 27% to be exact. The NDP and Liberals both pulled 7% of their share from the province.

Saskatchewan was another Conservative winner, pulling in $266K for the party, but only accounting for 5% of their total share. The NDP pulled a larger share of their funds from the province (7%) compared to the Liberals (3%), but they fall behind the Liberals in terms of total cash.

Manitoba sees the gap between Liberal and Tory fundraising narrow, but not by enough to make a notable change. The Tories raised nearly $200K from the province while the Liberals were shy of $78K, both parties pulled 4% of their share from the province. The NDP raised $23K and got 5% of their total from here.

All in all, the Conservative remain dominant in the West, both in fundraising and in the polls.

Ontario and Quebec

Ontario saw the Conservatives rake in a cool $2 million which accounted for 41% of donations earned from those donating $200 or more in Q2. The NDP also pulled 41% of their donations from that same group in Ontario but earned a meager $191K.

The Liberals pulled as much as they could from Canada’s most populous province as they earned $1.17 million — a whopping 56% of their over-$200 share. Nevertheless, suffice it to say that being behind by $800K in battleground Ontario isn’t great news for the Liberals.

The biggest fundraisers in Quebec ended up being the Liberals, but only by a slim margin over the Bloc ($251K to $239K). The Conservatives still pulled in $86K which is a decent amount considering their standing in the province. The NDP only raised $18K in Quebec.

There’s still a clear lag for the Conservatives in Quebec compared to Ontario and, again, this is reflective in the polling. If they win a majority in the future, I’d be hard pressed to believe it’ll include many Quebec seats.

Atlantic Canada & Territories

Unsurprisingly, the Atlantic province and our territories make up a modest fraction of the funds raised by all parties.

The Conservatives outperformed the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, thanks in part to a boost in Nova Scotia, as they pulled a total of $163K among the four provinces while the Liberals earned $127K. The NDP didn’t do terribly as they earned a combined $40k.

As for the territories, the Conservatives and Liberals were close with $15.7k and $13.7K, respectively. Nunavut is the only province the Conservatives didn’t have anyone who donated more than $200 during the quarter, but the Liberals and NDP did.

Final Thoughts

Between their sky-high fundraising and their rocketing in recent polling, one has to wonder whether the Conservatives have finally hit their stride during the Trudeau years or whether this is temporary until the next election writ.

The Tories have always been experts at fundraising outside of elections and the Liberals tend to make do with less. What I would be looking forward to see is whether or not, both in fundraising and in the polls, the NDP benefits from the Liberals slipping.

We’ll have to see in three months time how the finances of the parties stack up when we get Q3!