Could Trump's Latest Tariffs Hurt Carney?

From Trudeau's rebound to Carney's sustained high approval numbers, polls suggest Canadians have rallied behind their federal government as tensions with Washington have escalated. Will it last?

“Without us there’s no way they can survive,” said Trump from the Oval Office on Tuesday.

Donald Trump’s latest threats of new tariffs against Canada have once again injected uncertainty into Canada-U.S. relations. If history is any guide, however, the political consequences north of the border may not unfold the way the U.S. Administration hopes.

Since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, Canadians have consistently rallied behind their federal government whenever relations with Washington have deteriorated. That trend first became apparent during Justin Trudeau’s final weeks as prime minister—and it has continued under Mark Carney.

For nearly three years, Trudeau’s government experienced one of the longest and deepest declines of public approval in recent Canadian history. Net approval steadily deteriorated from slightly negative territory in 2022 to a net -45 in the aggregate by late 2024.

Then the trend abruptly reversed.

As Trump began threatening sweeping tariffs, questioning Canada’s sovereignty, and repeatedly referring to the country as a potential “51st state,” Canadians’ evaluation of their federal government changed dramatically.

Today, the Carney government enjoys a healthy +21 net approval rating in the 338Canada government approval tracker, with 55% of Canadians approving of its performance and 34% disapproving (on average).

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