Conservatives Outperform in Ontario, Liberals Just Short of Majority

NDP crumbled to historic low, but still retained balance of power.

Good morning 338Canada readers,

I was up until the wee hours last night and back up early this morning for class. I'm running on fumes and caffeine, so let’s keep this one short. We’ll, naturally, break down the results and evaluate how the polls and projections fared once all the votes are counted. For now, I just wanted to share a quick comparison between the preliminary results and the projections.

Overall, the model performed well — very well, even — except in Ontario, where most polls did underestimate CPC support.

Atlantic Canada

As of this writing, the regional projections for Atlantic Canada were right on the mark. The Liberals are elected or leading in 25 of the region’s 32 seats. The Conservatives picked up a seat in Newfoundland (Long Range Mountains) but lost two in Nova Scotia, so the CPC tally in ATL stands at seven seats.

As your can see below, the regional averages were bang on.

Quebec

In Quebec, we had projected significant Liberal gains at the expense of the Bloc Québécois. Here was the final projection for Quebec:

As of this writing, the Bloc won 23 seats — exactly as forecasted. The Liberals appear poised to win 43 seats, one more than projected. The Conservatives made a gain in Quebec and end up with 11 seats, one fewer than forecasted.

Ontario

It’s in Ontario that the Liberals dropped their chances for a majority. The forecast had the Liberals at 82 seats in the province, with a lower bracket at 60.

As of this morning, the Liberals are elected or leading in 69 Ontario seats — 13 below the forecast. The Conservatives currently stand at 53 seats, close to the forecast’s upper bracket of 58.

The NDP and Greens were shut out of Ontario. While this outcome was within the realm of possibility, what’s most striking is that the “safest” NDP seats in the province — Windsor West, London—Fanshawe, Hamilton Centre, and Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk — fell into the Conservative column.

(I have to head to class in a few minutes, so I’ll skip the Prairies for now — but I’ll dive into Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta very soon.)

British Columbia

In B.C., the Liberals and Conservatives were projected to share the losses of the NDP. The final 338Canada projection had 21 seats for the Conservatives, 20 for the Liberals, and two for the NDP.

While some votes remain to be counted, the projections were right on the mark. The Liberals stand at 20 seats, and the Conservatives at 19.

So once the votes are all tallied, we will go into a deep dive into the riding level. Each election is an opportunity to readjust, learn, and correct course.

Regionally, while the model overestimated the Liberals and underestimated the Conservatives by about 15 seats in Ontario alone, it performed almost perfectly elsewhere.

More to come soon. Thank you for supporting 338Canada. ❤️🍁