Conservatives Are Competitive. Pierre Poilievre Isn’t
Polls point to a widening gap between party strength and leader popularity.
Pierre Poilievre gambled with his political future—and won—at the Conservative Party of Canada convention in Calgary two weeks ago. Delegates, who gathered under unseasonably warm January skies courtesy of a timely Chinook, were asked whether to grant their leader a vote of confidence. Late that Friday night, the verdict was delivered: 87.4 percent of those who cast a ballot voted to keep Poilievre at the helm for another round.
Was there ever any real doubt? At first glance, recent polling suggests not. Despite currently trailing the Liberals in both vote intention and seat projections, the Conservatives remain electorally competitive. The party continues to benefit from a solid and loyal voter base, and should the Liberals stumble in the short or medium term, it would not take a dramatic shift in the polls for the Conservatives to reclaim front-runner status.
And yet, when one scratches beneath the surface, the picture becomes more complicated. The challenge facing the Conservatives appears less about the party brand itself than about Poilievre personally.