Carney Enters December on a High Note, But Not Without Warning Signs

Fresh post-MOU polls give the Liberals a modest edge and strong approval for the Prime Minister, but shifting numbers in B.C. could signal trouble ahead.

Good morning, dear 338Canada readers,

It has been polling galore in this early December. The metaphorical ink of the latest 338 Sunday Update was barely dry when we were treated to a trio of fresh federal surveys from Liaison Strategies, the Angus Reid Institute, and the weekly Nanos Research tracker.

The Liberal government has had to navigate several minefields over the past few weeks — some of its own making — and the early numbers suggest it may finish this tumultuous 2025 largely unscathed. Mostly, but not entirely.

With Abacus Data’s LPC +1 poll (released Sunday morning) and the Angus Reid Institute’s LPC +3 yesterday, all major polling firms now show the Liberals narrowly ahead of the Conservatives — albeit by margins well within the polls’ statistical uncertainty. Still, this is the first time since the April general election that all major firms place the Liberals in front, even if only nominally. (See list of all federal polls here.)

[Support independent media by subscribing to the 338Canada newsletter. Click here to redeem our Holidays+Christmas special offer — Thank you for your support!]