Abacus Data: Liberals Open a Clear Lead as Poilievre Faces Leadership Review

New polling shows rising government approval and improving numbers for Mark Carney as Conservative delegates vote on Pierre Poilievre’s leadership.

Good morning from Calgary, dear 338Canada readers,

The recent shift we have observed in the federal landscape can no longer be attributed to a statistical fluke. After Léger earlier this week, this morning’s new Abacus Data poll finds the Liberals putting some daylight between themselves and the Conservatives in public support. Mark Carney’s image also receives a significant boost.

This new poll measures Liberal support at 43% nationally — the highest LPC result recorded by Abacus since August 2025. The Conservatives stand pat at 39%.

While the movement detected by Abacus is incremental compared to the firm’s previous poll, the numbers follow a trend that has been building since mid-January, as observed in Abacus’ polling as well as that of other notable firms.

The NDP remains in single digits and is unchanged at 8%.