We were treated to a trio of federal polls this morning, all of which could give the current Conservative leadership team nightmares.
The latest—and always much-awaited—Léger poll measures Liberal support at 46% nationally, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%.
That 34%, incidentally, is essentially where Andrew Scheer in 2019 and Erin O’Toole in 2021 led the CPC in their respective general elections.
In short: not even close to enough to remain competitive with the Liberals at their current level of support, especially with the NDP still stuck at 8% in this poll and the low double digits in many recent ones.
Taken on their own, Léger’s numbers would point to a potentially crushing Liberal majority:
As for government approval, Léger sees Carney’s numbers sliding somewhat since June, but still comfortably in positive territory. According to the latest poll, 55% approve of the Carney government, compared with 38% who disapprove.
That gives the government a net approval rating of +17, down five points since June. Here is Léger’s government approval tracker since last fall:
See Léger’s numbers here.
Léger was not alone this morning.
The latest poll from Research Co. finds an even wider, 20-point chasm between the Liberals and Conservatives:
Research Co. also has Mark Carney leading Pierre Poilievre by 23 points on its preferred prime minister metric:
See Research Co.’s complete numbers here.
Finally, the latest Liaison Strategies tracker measures a 13-point Liberal lead, with the LPC at 44% and the CPC at 31%.
See Liaison’s latest numbers here.
Three polls, three double-digit Liberal leads.
More to come this week.
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