A Trio of Troubling Polls for the Conservatives

Liberal leads of 12, 13 and 20 points in new August polls offer little comfort to Pierre Poilievre and the CPC.

We were treated to a trio of federal polls this morning, all of which could give the current Conservative leadership team nightmares.

The latest—and always much-awaited—Léger poll measures Liberal support at 46% nationally, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%.

That 34%, incidentally, is essentially where Andrew Scheer in 2019 and Erin O’Toole in 2021 led the CPC in their respective general elections.

In short: not even close to enough to remain competitive with the Liberals at their current level of support, especially with the NDP still stuck at 8% in this poll and the low double digits in many recent ones.

Taken on their own, Léger’s numbers would point to a potentially crushing Liberal majority:

As for government approval, Léger sees Carney’s numbers sliding somewhat since June, but still comfortably in positive territory. According to the latest poll, 55% approve of the Carney government, compared with 38% who disapprove.

That gives the government a net approval rating of +17, down five points since June. Here is Léger’s government approval tracker since last fall:

See Léger’s numbers here.

Léger was not alone this morning.

The latest poll from Research Co. finds an even wider, 20-point chasm between the Liberals and Conservatives:

Research Co. also has Mark Carney leading Pierre Poilievre by 23 points on its preferred prime minister metric:

See Research Co.’s complete numbers here.

Finally, the latest Liaison Strategies tracker measures a 13-point Liberal lead, with the LPC at 44% and the CPC at 31%.

See Liaison’s latest numbers here.

Three polls, three double-digit Liberal leads.

More to come this week.

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