A Tied Race to Open 2026 — and Warning Signs for Mark Carney
New polling from Liaison Strategies finds a statistical tie in popular support and a gradual softening in government approval.
Happy New Year, dear readers. I wish you all happiness, good health, and lots of love for 2026.
And perhaps a little more “precedented” news events.
We were treated to a new federal poll from Liaison Strategies this morning. The survey was fielded from December 26 to January 3 and collected responses from 1,000 Canadians. From coast to coast, the Liberals stand at 38% support, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP appears to have slipped back into the low teens: Liaison puts the orange team at 12% nationally — including 21% in British Columbia.
That would be unwelcome news for Mark Carney’s Liberals.
Only four points separate the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario (42% LPC, 38% CPC), a margin that should feel rather uncomfortable for the governing party. While the Liberals won the popular vote in the province by 5.4 points last April (49.7% to 44.3%), end-of-campaign polling suggested a somewhat wider gap. If there is such a thing as a “ballot-box bonus” for the Conservatives in Ontario — combined with the NDP’s occasional (or habitual) underperformance — the seat count with numbers like these could be much closer than expected.
Results by age group largely reflect trends observed at the end of 2025. Liaison measures a small Conservative lead among younger voters (aged 18–34). Among those aged 35–49, the Conservatives hold a clearer advantage, leading the Liberals by 12 points.
The Liberals post their strongest results among voters aged 50 and over, holding a nine-point lead over the Conservatives among those aged 50–64, and a ten-point advantage among voters 65 and older.
Liaison has been tracking government approval since last summer. While results over the past five months point to a slow erosion in approval for Mark Carney’s performance, the latest update measures approval at 55%, with 39% disapproval — a respectable net +16 rating for the Prime Minister.
Details of this Liaison poll can be found on 338 here. Liaison’s full report is available here. The complete list of federal polls can be found here.
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