A First Since 2018: Legault's CAQ Appears Vulnerable
New Léger poll has CAQ lead shrink to 4 points over Parti Québécois
The latest Quebec Léger poll caused quite a stir in Quebec political circles last week, and for good reason: Support for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) fell to its lowest level since 2018. And only one party is benefiting from this slide: The Parti Québécois.
The horse race is not all that’s going awry for François Legault: Approval rating with the government is down (to 40%), and the Premier’s personal numbers have been falling. While the CAQ has governed through some socially challenging contexts over the past five years (pandemic, inflation, economic uncertainty), it had never been really threatened by its opponents. Until now.
Let us fist analyze what the Léger survey, and then get to the updated 338Canada projection for Quebec.
According to Léger, if an election had been held last week, the CAQ would have gotten 30% of voting intentions province-wide, a loss of 4 points since September and a stunning 11 points since the October ‘22 general election.
The only beneficiary of the CAQ stumble is the Parti Québécois, in second place with 26% in the province, and whose leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has seen his popularity ratings soar. In the “Which leader would make the best premier?” question, Plamondon (24%) is tied with Legault (23%).
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to 338Canada.ca to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.