338Canada Quebec Update: The CAQ Sinks

Updated projection numbers put the PQ in majority territory, while the CAQ is cut to shreds

François Legault’s Coalition avenir Québec has lost half its support in just one year, according to the latest Pallas Data poll (published by L'actualité magazine on Monday, read 338’s breakdown of the poll here), while the Parti québécois continues to climb in public opinion.

Back in September 2023, a Pallas poll put the PQ at 19% province-wde. In October, Léger put the PQ at 26%. Then in November, the PQ surpassed the CAQ with 30% according to Pallas, then Léger confirmed this trend and gave 31% for the PQ in December.

The latest Pallas figures now give the PQ an 11-point lead over the CAQ, 32% to 21%. The rise in the polls over the course of 2023 and early 2024 (see graph below) leaves no doubt about the trends of the past year.

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How will this support translate into seats in the National Assembly? Let's take a look at the updated 338Canada projection (as of January 31, 2024).