338 Update: Liberals Enter Campaign as Favourites

There is much volatility in the numbers, but one party holds the advantage at the campaign's starting line.

The worst-kept secret in Ottawa leaked in The Globe and Mail this morning: “Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to call a snap federal election Sunday for an expected vote on April 28.”

Campaign begins on Sunday.

Pre-campaign polls have been pouring in all week—so much so that we’re launching our daily federal updates starting today.

Let’s do a quick roundup of the latest numbers and present today’s 338Canada federal update.

First, a new poll from Ipsos/Global News gives the Carney Liberals a six-point national lead over the Conservatives. The chart below illustrates this dramatic turnaround: the Liberals have erased a 26-point deficit back in January, and are drawing new support from across the spectrum.

Ipsos also asked its panel who among the main leaders would make the best prime minister. New Liberal leader Mark Carney gets the nod of 42% of respondents, against 32% for Pierre Poilievre.

Regional breakdown of the horserace was not made available by Ipsos. Read details from Ipsos here.

Meanwhile, Nanos Research updated its weekly tracker on Monday night, and now has the Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (34%) in a statistical tie.

A periodic reminder: Since the Nanos tracker is a four-week rolling poll, it may lag behind other surveys—only a quarter of this sample was fielded after Mark Carney officially took over the Liberal Party.

Nevertheless, as the chart above illustrates, Nanos sees the same broader trend as other major firms: the Conservatives have squandered a 25+ point lead since January.

Read Nanos public report here.

We also add Liaison Strategies’ daily tracker to the mix. As of today’s update, we now have six days of the three-day tracker—see chart below. Last night’s update had the Liberals at 40% nationwide, against 36% for the Conservatives.

Read Liaison’s latest report here.

Now let’s get to the 338Canada projection.

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