338 Update: In Search of a Tightening

With 19 days to go, seat projections remain steady as the Liberals' national lead solidifies

With 19 days to in this 45th Canadian general election, polls suggest the Liberals are firming up their support in key regions of the country. While we do see notable divergences in the numbers, there is no clear sign of a tightening of the race in the past days.

I mention this “tightening”, because many readers and journalists have reached out to me about it. “What about this poll?” and “What about that poll?” All fair questions. When a party takes a clear lead over its rival, we always search for signs of a tightening.

We did the same from summer 2023 all the way to last Christmas.

First it was “Well, surely that 10-point CPC lead can’t keep growing, can it?”, then it became “Well, assuredly that gap won’t grow past 20 points.” Then it became 25 points. It was thought to be insurmountable.

Federal polls are coming in daily, so there is plenty of numbers to cherry-pick for partisan cherry-pickers. It’s okay, it’s all part of a campaign. But we don’t do that here at 338 HQ.

Let’s update the 338Canada projection.