338 Update: Carney Leads as Preferred PM, Liberal Numbers Climb Again

With 26 days to go in this federal campaign, momentum is squarely on the Liberals' side.

On the polling front, week one of the campaign went to the Liberals.

The early data from week two is also looking quite favourable to the Liberals. While campaigns and events can always turn momentum on a dime, the data points are piling up—and, as of this morning, they are all pointing in the same direction.

Let’s dive into the newest data.

Below is a chart of all the most recent polls from active firms in the campaign over the past week:

The best poll for the Conservatives remains the 39–39 tie measured by Abacus Data last week. Mainstreet Research’s daily tracker shows a narrow three-point Liberal lead, 43% to 40%, and is the only firm placing the Conservatives at the 40% mark. All others show national Conservative support in the mid- to high-30s.

All of these numbers—including Abacus Data’s—point towards a major Liberal advantage in the seat count, albeit by varying margins.