338 Tuesday (!) Update: The Liberals Pull Ahead

This is not a drill—new federal polling suggests the Liberals enter the campaign as favourites.

On the main 338Canada federal page, just above the main charts, one can read: “Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.” While the campaign hasn’t officially begun, word is we are mere days away from the launch—and, above all, fresh numbers released yesterday by Léger and the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) made it unconscionable to wait until next Sunday to update the projections.

These new numbers suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals will enter the campaign as the favourites, while the Conservatives find themselves in the unexpected position of underdog. A stunning reversal.

So let’s get into it.

In a dramatic shift, Léger now measures the Liberals leading nationally with 42% support, while the Conservatives trail at 39%. Given the poll’s sample size, a three-point lead remains within the margin of error, but the momentum is clear.

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