338Canada.ca

338Canada.ca

Share this post

338Canada.ca
338Canada.ca
338 Sunday Update: With LPC-NDP Breakup, Countdown Is On to General Election
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

338 Sunday Update: With LPC-NDP Breakup, Countdown Is On to General Election

Were the parts greater than the sum? We are about to find out.

Philippe J. Fournier's avatar
Philippe J. Fournier
Sep 08, 2024
∙ Paid
16

Share this post

338Canada.ca
338Canada.ca
338 Sunday Update: With LPC-NDP Breakup, Countdown Is On to General Election
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
2
Share

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Wednesday that he was “ripping up” his party’s confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals. When the House of Commons begins its fall sitting on September 16, parliament will be back to a “real” minority status.

Naturally, the odds that this parliament goes the distance and the general election goes as scheduled on October 20, 2025, dropped significantly last week.

Readers of this newsletter have probably read many analysis and opinion pieces about the end of the NDP-LPC “alliance” — the causes behind the breakup, the possible aftermath, the strategies all sides could/should embrace going forward — so I will not dabble into those.

I will stick to the numbers.

(And speaking of numbers,

Éric Grenier
and I discussed the end of CASA in last week’s episode of The Numbers.)

Let’s first breakdown last week’s polls, then get to the 338Canada federal projection update.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to 338Canada.ca to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Philippe J. Fournier
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More