338 Sunday Update: With LPC-NDP Breakup, Countdown Is On to General Election

Were the parts greater than the sum? We are about to find out.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Wednesday that he was “ripping up” his party’s confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals. When the House of Commons begins its fall sitting on September 16, parliament will be back to a “real” minority status.

Naturally, the odds that this parliament goes the distance and the general election goes as scheduled on October 20, 2025, dropped significantly last week.

Readers of this newsletter have probably read many analysis and opinion pieces about the end of the NDP-LPC “alliance” — the causes behind the breakup, the possible aftermath, the strategies all sides could/should embrace going forward — so I will not dabble into those.

I will stick to the numbers.

(And speaking of numbers,

Éric Grenier

and I discussed the end of CASA in last week’s episode of The Numbers.)

Let’s first breakdown last week’s polls, then get to the 338Canada federal projection update.