338 Sunday Update: Welcome to the 343-Seat Map

Conservatives and Bloc Québécois both gain ground in the new 343-seat electoral map.

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Goodbye 338-seat map, we barely knew you.

Well, okay that’s not quite true. The 2013 Representation Order was used for the last three general elections, but for me it still feels like yesterday.

By now, readers of this column will know that with the population growth/movement of the past decade, it was crucial for Elections Canada to redraw new electoral district boundaries and redistribute the ratio of seats per province to respect The Representation Formula (see details here).

It was a long and well-documented process, and the net result is that British Columbia and Ontario were both awarded an additional seat (now totalling 43 and 122 seats, respectively), while Alberta sees its deputation bumped up by three seats (from 34 to 37). Seat totals of other provinces remained unchanged: 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 4 in Prince Edward Island, 11 in Nova Scotia, 10 in New Brunswick, 78 in Quebec, 14 apiece for Manitoba and Saskatchewan, plus one by for each territory.

It is no secret that the new map will be (modestly) more advantageous for the Conservatives (right off the bat, adding three more seats in Alberta is a boon to the CPC), but it should be stressed that the 2023 changes to the map do not result in a completely one-sided tilt. Each of the main parties find itself with seats that would now be safer and/or more of a challenge to win in 2025.

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(For a detailed analysis, read TheWrit.ca where my friend and podcast partner Éric Grenier wrote extensive reviews of the new map. Here is what he wrote about Alberta and B.C., and about Toronto/Peel Region for instance).

The Elections Canada transposition data from the 2021 general election shows how close, yet also Conservative-friendly, the new 343-seat map is from its 338-seat predecessor: Using the 2021 results onto the new boundaries would have resulted in the Liberals winning 157 seats (instead of 160), the Conservatives 126 seats (+7 from 119), the Bloc Québécois 34 (+2 from 32), the NDP 24 (minus-1 from 25), and the Greens 2 (no change).

With the 2023 Redistribution becoming official this coming Tuesday, April 23, 2024, it was time to update the weekly 338Canada projections onto the new 343-seat map.

So, let’s get into it.