338 Sunday Update: We Interrupt This Program
Low-bandwidth edition.
Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,
Today’s update will be a short one, as I’ve been battling the flu bug (and mostly losing) all weekend. I’ve been on a steady diet of chicken noodle soup and dextromethorphan these past few days, so my brain is very much mush. Apologies in advance — and thank you for your indulgence.
Last week saw the House rise for the holidays, a round of high-drama Christmas parties, and (yet) another floor-crossing from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Thankfully for my sake, it was a quiet week in the polls. So let’s get right to it.
We add to the pile this morning’s Abacus Data newest federal numbers and the usual Nanos Research tracker update.
Nationally, Abacus puts the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 41% apiece. The NDP remains a distant third at 9%.
In Ontario, the Liberals (45%) and Conservatives (44%) are neck and neck. In Quebec, the Liberals (37%) hold a seven-point lead over the Bloc Québécois. In British Columbia, Abacus sees the Liberals and Conservatives just two points apart: 40% for the LPC, 38% for the CPC.
Government approval remains above water in Abacus’ latest release: 47% approve of the federal government’s performance, while 35% disapprove. Approval has eroded slowly since the summer in Abacus’ numbers, but the Liberals appear poised to end the year with net-positive ratings.
Read the complete report from Abacus Data here.
The updated 338Canada projection has tightened modestly. We stress modestly, as the numbers remain within the same general range as recent updates. The Liberals continue to lead with an average of 164 seats, while the Conservatives trail not far behind, averaging 142 seats.
The Bloc Québécois averages 27 seats (five more than the party’s April tally), while the NDP sits at eight.
With any luck (and a few more bowls of soup with extra tabasco), I should be back to full strength shortly. Expect more analysis later this week.
Visit the main 338Canada page for all federal numbers here. Thank you all for your support.❤️🍁
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