338 Sunday Update: Trudeau-Less Liberals Climb, But Conservatives Remain Comfortably Ahead
Amid continental uncertainty and a leadership race, the Liberals tick upward in the latest polls.
Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,
How many months was January 2025?
It was only four weeks ago today that The Globe and Mail broke the news that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would announce his resignation the next day—alongside the prorogation of Parliament until March—triggering a Liberal leadership race.
Thirteen days ago, Donald Trump was sworn in as U.S. President, vowing to wreak havoc in continental trade and decades of Western diplomacy. So far, he has delivered on both fronts.
The first federal polls following Trudeau’s resignation showed only modest overall movement—nothing that could be clearly distinguished from statistical fluctuations or a (partial) regression to the mean. However, in the latter half of January, new polls all tilted in the same direction—albeit to varying degrees.
While many observers would hastily dismiss EKOS’ unique set of numbers—showing a single-digit gap between the Liberals and Conservatives—for being “off the charts” (in the case above, quite literally), the latest polls from Léger, Abacus Data, Mainstreet Research, and the Nanos Research tracker all landed in the same quadrant of the Bullseye chart. The odds of this being a mere coincidence are low.
Let us review the numbers from the past week and update the 338Canada federal projection.
[If you appreciate the work we do here at 338, please consider subscribing. Redeem our special offer here.]
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to 338Canada.ca to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.