338 Sunday Update: Summer Solstice, at Last

Parliament is out, federal polls are stable, and the longest day of the year seems like a good excuse to keep things brief.

🍁Happy Summer Solstice, dear 338Canada readers,

The House of Commons has risen for the summer. The federal landscape has shifted tremendously compared to when the winter sitting began in late January. For one, the Liberals now hold a majority in Parliament, removing the constant uncertainty and speculation over when Canadians might be called back to the voting booths.

That majority also puts the country's opposition parties, most notably the Conservatives, in the more difficult position of trying to remain in the conversation.

The Conservatives have not led a poll from a recognized firm since last December. Pollsters continue to disagree on the size of the Liberal lead, but they all agree on the broader picture: Mark Carney's Liberals remain comfortably ahead, and government satisfaction remains in positive territory 14 months after last year's general election.

Here below are the latest polls from active firms on the federal scene in the past month. The Liberal lead ranges from 8 to 16 points over the Conservatives.

We will keep today's update short. It is the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, after all.

Government approval appears to have stabilized after weeks of slow erosion. In today's update, the Carney government posts 55% approval against 34% disapproval, for a net score of +21.

The Liberals average 201 seats in today's projection update, compared to 107 for the Conservatives.

Although Bloc Québécois support has generally hovered around the party's 2025 election result, Liberal dominance in Quebec has pushed the Bloc's average down to 20 seats. The NDP sits at an average of 13 seats.

Will the summer months erode the Carney government's standing among Canadian voters? Last summer cannot really serve as a precedent, as Canada had just emerged from an election campaign that produced a Liberal minority government—strong enough to govern comfortably, but still a minority nonetheless.

All the federal numbers are available here.

We will continue to post updates throughout the summer, but we will also focus on updating features across the site—a perfect coding activity for warm summer months. No, really.

As always, thanks to all subscribers of the 338Canada newsletter.🍁❤️

📊338Canada is an independent, reader-supported, data-driven media.
🍁Join thousands of readers supporting 338Canada here