338 Sunday Update: Summer Plateau

Federal polling enters a midsummer groove, with little movement across the board.

🎵 Summertime, and the pollin’ is easy
🎵 Libs are jumpin', and Carney is high
🎵 Oh, the trendline's steady, and the crosstabs are holdin'
🎵 So hush, dear data nerds, don't you cry.

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As many Canadians disconnect from politics for the summer, the latest federal numbers suggest we have settled into a new plateau: the Liberals continue to lead in voting intentions, approval of the Carney government remains comfortably in positive territory, and the Prime Minister continues to post strong personal favourability ratings.

The latest poll from Abacus Data, released this morning, gives the Liberals an eight-point lead nationally over the Conservatives, 44% to 36%, while the NDP remains a distant third at 8%.

See all the toplines here and read the full Abacus report from David Coletto here.

The weekly trackers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies showed little movement. Nanos has the Liberals at 44% nationally, 14 points ahead of the Conservatives, while Liaison has a modestly closer race with the LPC at 42% and the CPC, 34%. Both trackers have the NDP in double-digits: 12% from Nanos, 13% from Liaison.

Read the latest releases from Nanos here and Liaison here.

Here below are the latest federal polls from active firms in the past 30 days:

Liberal support ranges from 41% to 48% nationally, while Conservative support ranges from 30% to 36%.

Here is the latest 338Canada projection, updated for July 5.

Naturally, with mostly stable numbers in the aggregate over the past week, we see no major changes in the seat projections.

The Liberals remain on top with an average projection of 208 seats, compared to 101 for the Conservatives.

The Bloc Québécois averages 20 seats in Quebec, while the NDP sits at 12 nationally, with a confidence range spanning roughly 4 to 17 seats.

July is usually a quieter month on the polling front—though perhaps not in Quebec or Alberta. Either way, we'll have more analysis next week.

📊Thanks, as always, to all subscribers who make 338Canada possible.
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