338 Sunday Update: Stalemate in the Polls, Budget Drama on the Hill?

As Liberals and Conservatives remain in a statistical tie, Ottawa braces for a high-stakes budget vote that could decide this Parliament’s fate.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

In the coming two weeks, we should expect no shortage of drama and speculation over whether the upcoming federal budget will survive a vote in the House of Commons. Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is set to table this long-delayed budget on November 4 — the first comprehensive update on federal finances since last December’s turmoil-ridden “fall” economic statement. You may recall it was supposed to be delivered by Chrystia Freeland. Many political dominoes began to fall from that day on.

I spent two days in Ottawa last week (for the always-enjoyable Politico Trivia Night at the Met, hosted by my friend and Politico Canada bureau chief Nick Taylor-Vaisey), and the same question kept coming up among political observers: Will this Parliament last until Christmas? One seasoned diplomat even estimated the odds of an election before year’s end at one in four.

Whether I agree with that assessment isn’t the point — but it did strike me. One-in-four seems high, yet in a Parliament hanging on tight votes, anything is possible. The New Democrats are unlikely to find much to like in the upcoming budget, and the Bloc Québécois is not in the business of helping the Liberals. That leaves the 144 Conservative MPs. To be continued…

What do the latest federal numbers say on the state of the race? Let’s dive in.