338 Sunday Update: Smooth Sailing for Mark Carney, For Now
Federal polls show stable support for the Carney Liberals and broad backing for Bill C-5 across regions and party lines.
Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,
While reports suggest that things are moving behind the scenes (thanks to economic uncertainty caused by you-know-who), Canadian politics is finally slowing down after an intense six-month stretch from December to June.
Recent polling shows many Canadians welcome this reprieve: approval and satisfaction levels for the new government remain comfortably above water.
Let’s review the latest federal polls, namely from Nanos Research and Léger.
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Setting horserace numbers aside, both the Nanos tracker and Léger’s latest release show the same trend: most Canadian voters are satisfied with Mark Carney’s new government, and the Prime Minister holds a commanding lead over CPC leader Pierre Poilievre in the preferred PM tracker.
After seven consecutive weeks of declining numbers for Poilievre, the Nanos tracker appears to have hit a new plateau (see chart below). Last week’s numbers had Mark Carney as the choice of 52% of respondents, against 25% for Poilievre—a modest rebound for the CPC leader after hitting a low of 23%.
It’s worth noting that Carney’s numbers have held mostly stable since election day: he averaged 47% in May and 52% in June. His growing lead in the preferred PM tracker is due more to Poilievre’s fall—from the high 30s to the low 20s—than any major Carney surge.
As for voting intentions, Nanos has the Liberals flying high at 45% nationally, against 35% for the Conservatives.
Read Nanos’ report here.
The always much-awaited Léger poll (for the National Post) was released on Friday, and it also showed Carney’s Liberals with dominant numbers from top to bottom.
Satisfaction with the federal government stands at 55% nationally, with regional breakdowns showing 50% or higher in every major region (see chart below).
Government satisfaction is highest in British Columbia at 59% (with a net +27) and in Ontario at 56% (+22). Even in Alberta, Carney’s numbers are surprisingly solid: 50% satisfied, 40% dissatisfied.
In terms of voting intentions, Léger gives the Liberals a 13-point national lead over the Conservatives, 48% to 35%—including a double-digit Liberal lead in Ontario for the second consecutive poll.
Finally, Léger gauged public opinion on Carney’s first major legislative act: Bill C-5, the One Canadian Economy Act (which includes the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act). The bill received Royal Assent on June 26. here.
C-5 is a sweeping and complex piece of legislation, so it’s no surprise that many voters may not know exactly what it entails. Here is Léger’s preamble from its questionnaire:
“Recently the Parliament of Canada passed legislation called Bill C-5. This legislation provides the government of Canada the ability to fast-track approvals for infrastructure projects deemed to be in the "national interest". These could be major undertakings such as, seaport expansion, transportation infrastructures, and energy projects including possible new pipelines. Critics argue bill C-5 undermines Indigenous rights and environmental protections by granting the federal government broad discretionary powers to approve projects with limited consultation. Supporters of the legislation argue Indigenous consultation requirements and environmental reviews all remain in place, but these will be done in a more efficient manner.”
Respondents were then asked: “What is your opinion about this new legislation? Do you think it is a good idea or a bad one for Canada in the long run?”
Nationally, a clear majority (56%) say Bill C-5 is a good idea, while just 25% believe it’s a bad one. Support for the bill is high across all regions—and it even draws backing across party lines, with 55% of Conservative voters in agreement.
Details of this Léger poll, including more numbers on the perceptions of C-5, can be found here.
That will be all for today. Visit 338Canada.com for all the latest polls and updated federal projections.
Thank you for supporting 338Canada. Enjoy the summer. ❤️🍁