338 Sunday Update: Post-Trudeau Bump? Depends Who (and How) You Ask

Probabilistic samples saw the Liberals rebound. Online panels detected no such movement. Welcome to an electorate in flux.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

It was another busy week on the federal front, with leadership hopefuls announcing their candidacies or gearing up to do so. We were even treated to a minor polling controversy. Well, sort of.

I write this somewhat facetiously because the modest divergence we saw last week does not (yet) amount to a full-blown controversy. Nevertheless, the question is worth asking: Has Trudeau’s resignation announcement helped Liberal fortunes in any way? Can we discern short-term effects on party support now that Trudeau is out of the equation?

The answer is complex and will become clearer and more definitive with time. For now, the short (and boring) version is: maybe. It depends on who was polled—or, rather, how people were polled.

Let’s begin with a recap of last week’s numbers before diving into this week’s federal projection update.

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