338 Sunday Update: Polls Show Conservatives Coming Up Short

Can the Conservatives win this election? Yes, but the final numbers would have to be historically wrong.

Let’s cut to the chase: this weekend’s final numbers all point toward a Liberal victory on Monday night.

Enough for a majority? That much is less clear, but favourable support in key areas of the country suggests an LPC majority remains the most likely scenario.

Let’s dive into the final numbers.

Throughout this five-week campaign, we have seen some major, eye-popping divergences in the polls—but, as expected, the numbers have converged, even though some minor differences remain.

Here below are the final national polls:

Liberal support ranges form 41% to 44%, with a weighted average of 43%.

As for the Conservatives, the national number go from 37% to 41%, with a weighted average of 39%.

It looks like the NDP will take a serious hit in this election. New Democratic support ranges from 6% (ouch) to 11%.

In Ontario, the Liberals remain in front across the board, but to varying degrees:

• 🔴LPC +3, Abacus Data

• 🔴LPC +3, Nanos

• 🔴LPC +5, Innovative

• 🔴LPC +5, Liaison

• 🔴LPC +6, Research Co.

• 🔴LPC +7, MQO

• 🔴LPC +8, Ipsos

• 🔴LPC +8, Léger

• 🔴LPC +9, Angus Reid

• 🔴LPC +9, Pollara

• 🔴LPC +10, EKOS

• 🔴LPC +11, Pallas Data

Nanos Research and Abacus Data only see a three-point gap in favour of the Liberals in the province, whereas Léger, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Pollara, EKOS, and Pallas Data measured a more comfortable advantage (ranging from 8 to 11 points).

A scenario where only three points separate the main parties in Ontario would result in a much tighter seat tally than currently projected. With such numbers, the Conservatives would finally pierce the Liberals' armour in the crucial 905 region, could secure close contests in the Niagara area, and would make net gains in the north.

On the other hand, the wider gaps (as measured by Léger and others) would produce significant net gains for the Liberals, with a seat harvest in the 82–95 range.

In Quebec, only Angus Reid sees the Liberals ahead by a single-digit margin (LPC +6). All other polling firms—including Montreal-based Léger—have the Liberals in a dominant position:

• 🔴LPC +6, Angus Reid

• 🔴LPC +10, Abacus Data

• 🔴LPC +11, EKOS

• 🔴LPC +13, Pallas Data

• 🔴LPC +13, Pollara

• 🔴LPC +14, Innovative

• 🔴LPC +14, Nanos

• 🔴LPC +15, Ipsos

• 🔴LPC +16, Léger

• 🔴LPC +19, Liaison

• 🔴LPC +19, Research Co.

• 🔴LPC +21, MQO

If the polls are within range in Quebec, the Liberals could win more seats in the province than at any point since I was in a stroller. In Justin Trudeau’s first victory back in 2015, the Liberals captured 40 seats in Quebec. The final polls of this 2025 campaign suggest that the Carney Liberals could beat that mark.

British Columbia is unquestionably the province that gives me the most headaches when building projections. In addition to the realignment we witnessed provincially last October, the federal numbers in 2025 bear little resemblance to those of 2019 and 2021.

In short: NDP support has been cut in half in B.C., and the Liberals and Conservatives are feeding off the party’s carcass.

Also, there are some disagreement in the polls:

• 🔵CPC +1, EKOS

• 🔵CPC +1, Liaison

• 🔵CPC +2, Abacus Data

• 🔵CPC +3, Angus Reid

• 🔴LPC +1, MQO

• 🔴LPC +3, Ipsos

• 🔴LPC +3, Léger

• 🔴LPC +3, Nanos

• 🔴LPC +3, Research Co.

• 🔴LPC +4, Pollara

• 🔴LPC +9, Innovative

• 🔴LPC +11, Pallas Data

Polling numbers in Metro Vancouver suggest the Liberals have picked up most of the NDP’s lost support. However, on Vancouver Island, it is the Conservatives who appear poised for net gains at the NDP’s expense.

B.C. is never a simple place electorally.

As I write this tonight, the 338Canada model is running and will continue to do so for the next several hours. I will get up early Monday morning to post my final projection of this federal campaign.

Looking at the preliminary numbers, it appears the Liberals will average around 185 seats, against 125 for the Conservatives.

More on that tomorrow morning.

And then, for the rest of the day, I will remain quiet. No more posting polls or projections—because election day belongs to the voters.

Thank you for supporting 338Canada. ❤️🍁