338 Sunday Update: Poilievre, Ford, Eby Cruising, Legault in Free Fall
Safe to say that no Premier had a worse week than François Legault
It was a busy week in the Canadian polling universe, so let’s dive right into it.
No fewer than four federal polls were published last week, as Léger, Ipsos, Nanos Research and Mainstreet Research all released their latest:
The previous Léger poll in December had many observers wondering whether the Liberals had made a (modest) comeback and tightened the gap with the Conservatives. While January polls had indicated that the 12-to-16-point margin between the two parties had endured the Holiday break, we were naturally curious to see what Léger would measure in the new year. We know now: CPC 40%, LPC 25%, NDP 20% — a return to square one from late fall. Read Léger’s full report here.
When Ipsos last published federal numbers last November, it measured a 16-point lead for the Conservatives, on par with the polling averages then. This new Ipsos poll however measures a 9-point gap between the main parties with the Conservatives at 36% and Liberals at 27%. Outside of the weekly Nanos tracker, this is the lowest score for the CPC since June 2023. A note to those screaming “Outlier!” at Ipsos: In an environment where the CPC averages 39-40% of support, 36% is well within reasonable range. Read Ipsos’ report here.
Speaking of “perceived outliers, but not really”, on the same day Ipsos released its 36% for the CPC, Mainstreet Research published its latest: 43% Conservatives, 26% Liberals, 16% NDP. Read the full numbers from Mainstreet here (regional data is paywalled).
Finally, the Nanos weekly tracker — now fully fielded in 2024 — measured a 12-point lead for the Conservatives, 39% to 27%. Read Nanos’ report here (regional data is paywalled).
Let’s get to this week’s 338Canada federal update!
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