338 Sunday Update: No Summer Slump for the Liberals

Liberals hold steady, Conservatives remain stalled, and the NDP still can’t find momentum.

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As many voters across Canada may be taking their usual July hiatus from politics, federal numbers show notable stability across the board.

Mark Carney's Liberals still hold a significant advantage over their Conservative rivals and government approval remains at enviable levels, as national attention will soon turn to Quebec and Alberta, where voters face a provincial election and a referendum this fall.

Three new national polls were released last week, alongside several issue-based surveys. On Friday, I broke down the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on Canadians' views of two proposed pipeline projects. You can read it here.

Let us begin with the latest survey from Abacus Data, which was released this morning.

Abacus: Liberals +6

Abacus Data's latest survey shows no major movement on the federal front, although it continues to depict a somewhat closer race than most other recent polls. The Liberals remain in first place at 43%, six points ahead of the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP sits in a distant third at 9%.

Regionally, Abacus sees more of the same across the board, with some tightening in Ontario where the Liberals hold a 7-point lead. Two weeks ago, Abacus had the Liberals leading by 12 points in the province. No dramatic movement just yet, but it may be worth watching whether this narrowing persists over the coming weeks.

Abacus also sees only minor movement in government approval: 52% approve (-2) and 32% disapprove (+1) — for a net +20 approval.

The chart below shows Abacus' government approval numbers since late winter. While 52% approval is the lower end of current ranges, it’s hard to look at this chart and really decipher a clear trend and not just noise.

One question worth watching over the coming months is whether the Liberals' embrace of new pipeline projects creates space for the NDP or Greens to recover support among environmentally minded voters.

So far, there is little-to-no evidence of that. Neither party has shown meaningful gains in voting intentions, and Abacus' tracking of leader impressions shows virtually no movement for NDP leader Avi Lewis.

Not only has Lewis not moved the needle for his party since March, his personal numbers have also remained completely flat. Naturally, this is not an assessment on Lewis’ leadership thus far, as that would be premature. But we continue to follow these numbers with interest, if the NDP begins winning back support from the Liberals, we would most likely also see upward movement for the leader.

Read details from Abacus here, including analysis from Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

Nanos Research: Liberals lead by 12

The usual weekly tracker from Nanos Research has fluctuated back and forth in recent weeks — as weekly trackers do. Last week’s update, conducted between June 19 and July 10, measured Liberal support at 43%, against 31% for the Conservatives. Nanos has the NDP back in the mid-teens with 15%.

Nanos’ preferred PM tracker still has Mark Carney as the top choice of a majority of respondents with 52%, 29 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre. Avi Lewis (not shown on chart below) took 5%.

Read the public release from Nanos here.

Liaison Strategies: A (slightly) closer race?

Finally, the two-week tracker from Liaison Strategies has also moved towards a tightening, although the movement is well within the poll’s margin of error, so prudence. Liaison puts the Liberals at 41% nationally, against 35% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s regional breakdown shows nothing especially unusual compared to recent averages. The Liberals lead by 17 points over the Bloc in Quebec, and by 8 points over the Conservatives in Ontario. It is worth noting that Liaison has the NDP at 23% in British Columbia, down two points from last week, but still significantly higher than current averages from other pollsters.

Read Liaison’ latest release here.

Taken together, these three polls reinforce the same picture we've been seeing for weeks. The margins differ from firm to firm, but all point to a clear Liberal lead, stable government approval, and no meaningful momentum for opposition parties.

Let’s get to this week’s 338Canada federal update.

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