338 Sunday Update: Major Winter Surge for the Liberals

New polls from Léger, Nanos, Liaison, Ipsos, and Abacus Data point to growing Liberal momentum and rising government approval — even as voters show little appetite for an early election.

Happy Daylight Saving Sunday*, dear readers,

(*Not applicable to SK, YT and—soon—BC.)

Federal polls in the past week have shown continued momentum for Mark Carney’s Liberals. The always much-anticipated poll from Léger, published by the National Post last week, confirmed recent trends in favour of the Liberals.

In late January, just as Conservative delegates were gathering in Calgary to vote on Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, Léger measured a nine-point advantage for the Liberals over the Conservatives. One month later, that lead has grown to 14 points.

This poll is devastating for the Conservatives on a number of fronts. The first is obvious: numbers like these, should they translate into ballots cast, would probably lead to a massive Liberal majority with net LPC gains in every region.

In Ontario, Léger measures a 16-point lead for the Liberals: 52% LPC, 36% CPC. In Quebec, that lead grows to a stunning 23 points over the Bloc: 48% LPC, 25% BQ. In British Columbia, where polls over the past year have hovered around a 40-40 tie, Léger gives the Liberals a 13-point lead over the Conservatives—and shows a near-collapse of the NDP with only 7% in the province.

Second: government approval has climbed back up after a mid-autumn dip, even surpassing last summer’s post-election honeymoon for the Liberals. According to Léger, 61% of Canadians approve of the Mark Carney government, compared to 31% who disapprove.

See below the Léger government approval tracker since last summer:

In fact—and perhaps most striking of all—not only is net approval above water in every region, but more than 50% of respondents in every region currently approve of the federal government. Net approval (approve minus disapprove) is +30 in Ontario, +35 in Quebec, +32 in British Columbia, and even +12 in Alberta.

Additionally, one in four CPC voters approve of the government, as do nearly half of Bloc voters and a majority of NDP voters (BQ and NDP voter samples are small, so the usual caution applies—but Léger is not the only poll showing this trend).

Finally, one more aspect of this new Léger poll deserves attention: very few voters want an election soon—and even fewer Liberals do.

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