338 Sunday Update: Liberals Widen Their Lead

Week one is in the books, and the Liberals find themselves in majority territory, as the Bloc falters and the NDP struggles for relevance.

First week of this five-week federal campaign is done.

While there has been no shortage of stories from all sides—impressive turnouts at Conservative rallies from coast to coast, and the much-anticipated first contact between Mark Carney and Donald Trump—we here at 338 HQ will continue to focus solely on the numbers. It’s what readers and subscribers have come to expect from this newsletter.

So, what do the numbers tell us so far? They all point toward the Liberals firmly holding the momentum.

Below are the latest figures from all active polling firms covering the campaign (as of this writing).

You’ll notice that the Liberals are ahead in every single one of them—except for the latest from Abacus Data, which has both main parties tied at 39%.

A note on methodology: We now have three daily trackers in the field—Mainstreet Research, Liaison Strategies, and Nanos Research. These firms are releasing daily updates based on three-day rolling polls. For example, Nanos polls 400 respondents per day, publishing a sample of ~1,200 after three days. Each new day, the oldest 400 cases are dropped and replaced.

Many readers have asked how these rolling trackers are handled in the 338Canada model. The answer is simple: each daily release from a tracking firm is weighted as a third of a poll. The usual variables—sample size and pollster rating—remain unchanged.

Let’s dive into the data and update the 338Canada federal projections.