338 Sunday Update: Liberals Reclaim Ground as Poilievre Slides

New Abacus Data polling confirms Pierre Poilievre’s dip, as the Liberals make modest gains in the seat projections.

It looks like last weekend’s Abacus Data numbers showing Pierre Poilievre taking a hit in public opinion were not a fluke. Days before his upcoming leadership review in Calgary, it appears as though perceptions of the Conservative leader really have slipped deeper into negative territory.

First, some context. In a poll fielded from January 9–14, 2026, Abacus measured Poilievre at 48% negative impressions — the highest level of unfavourability for Poilievre since he took the reins of the CPC in 2022 — up five points since Abacus’ previous poll back in December.

As for Poilievre’s positive impressions, they slipped from 39% to 35%. This adds up to a net appreciation of -13. By comparison, Mark Carney’s net rating stood at +13 in the same poll.

Despite Abacus’ tracking showing remarkable stability since last summer, it was a safe assumption that this sudden negative movement could have been a statistical blip. The only way to find out was more polling — ideally by the same pollster using the same methodology. And Abacus went right back into the field.

The newer numbers on Poilievre? Unmoved: 48% negative, 35% positive.

Two consecutive polls rarely produce outliers in the same direction. This may not be a blip after all.