338 Sunday Update: Liberals Pull Ahead as Poilievre Clears Leadership Review

Conservative delegates in Calgary give Poilievre a strong mandate, setting the stage for a potential rematch with Mark Carney.

Happy Sunday morning, live from Calgary, dear 338Canada readers,

Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre handily won his leadership review this weekend at the CPC Convention in Calgary, setting the stage for a rematch with Mark Carney’s Liberals. Hours after Poilievre delivered his speech to delegates gathered at the BMO Centre, news broke that he had secured just over 87% support.

Naturally, several new polls were fielded and released in the days leading up to Poilievre’s leadership review. Last Sunday, we at 338 HQ hinted that polling was beginning to point to a modest—but statistically meaningful—shift in favour of Mark Carney and the Liberals. Voting intentions, government approval, and satisfaction had all trended upward since mid-January, while Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers had taken a hit.

Last week’s polls confirmed that trend.

Let’s recap the latest numbers and update the 338Canada federal projection.

📊If you enjoy 338Canada and want to support independent data-driven analysis, consider subscribing to the 338Canada newsletter here. Free and paid options are available. Thank you for your support.🍁