338 Sunday Update: Liberals Hit a Ceiling — But It’s a High One
Carney’s numbers remain strong but are levelling off, while Conservatives tick up and NDP support remains volatile.
🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,
The NDP is down to five members in the House. Mark Carney may have hit a ceiling — a high one, to be sure, but a ceiling nonetheless. And while government satisfaction and approval remain at enviable levels, the Conservatives ticked back up in the latest Léger.
Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.
The House currently has no vacancies, but three MPs have all but announced their departures — developments that could trigger a trio of by-elections before year’s end.
Jonathan Wilkinson (MP for North Vancouver—Capilano) was picked for Canada’s next ambassador to the European Union, a role he should take up this coming summer.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Beaches—East York) will run in the upcoming provincial Ontario Liberal leadership race , set to conclude in November.
Finally, Alexandre Boulerice (Rosemont—La Petite Patrie), the lone NDP MP from Quebec, resigned from the NDP caucus last week to sit as an independent. Boulerice will run for Quebec solidaire in the upcoming Quebec general election this fall.
Eric and I discussed these soon-to-be vacancies — and what they might reveal about the relative strength of the Liberals, the NDP, and, to a lesser extent, the Conservatives — in the latest episode of The Numbers.
Let’s now recap the polls of the past week, and update the federal projection.
Léger: Liberals lead by 11, NDP still rock-bottom
The latest monthly Léger poll for Postmedia shows a modest Conservative bounce in voting intentions, from 34% to 37%. But that’s about where the good news ends for the CPC, as Liberal support remains unchanged at 48% nationwide.
These figures are broadly in line with recent Léger polls (see chart below).
While most of the attention naturally goes to the top-line numbers, it’s hard to ignore that one of the country’s most reputable firms still has the NDP reeling at just 6% nationwide.
NDP support has varied widely across pollsters in recent weeks, suggesting little consensus on where the party truly stands since Avi Lewis took the reins in late March.
The Angus Reid Institute and Nanos Research both measured NDP support at 12% in their latest releases, while EKOS put the party at 13%. But Léger, Abacus Data, and Liaison Strategies continue to show the NDP stuck in single digits.
That divergence matters. There is a huge difference between a projection with the NDP at 6–8% and one with the party at 12–13%.
📊 Less hot takes. More Signal.
🍁 Join thousands of readers who go beyond the toplines with 338Canada. Subscribe here.
