338 Sunday Update: Laying the Groundwork for 2026

A light week in the polls as politics—and 338Canada—gear up for the year ahead.

Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

There was little action in the polls last week, as many Canadians are only slowly waking up to 2026. But tomorrow is Monday, January 12—the winter equivalent of the Monday after Labour Day, when the political season truly begins anew.

I have been quieter than usual over the past two weeks, both on social media and in the media more broadly. Vacation was part of the reason, but not the main one. For quite some time, many features and elements of the main site’s presentation had been bugging me. I received countless emails and messages from readers, journalists, MPs, and party staff pointing out that navigation on 338Canada could sometimes be frustrating. I agreed—it had to be better.

Addressing those issues meant diving deep into the site’s code, which requires time and sustained focus—two things that are hard to come by during a parliamentary session, when updates, new polls, and unfinished columns tend to pile up. So I spent most of my free time over the Holidays working on the site. I’m happy to report that, while it’s still not perfect, it has been significantly improved. The updated version is now live here (federal numbers are here).

I can now (finally) get back to analysing polls, writing columns, and recording podcasts with my friend Éric Grenier — The Numbers returns this Tuesday.

(This kind of behind-the-scenes work isn’t always the most visible, but it’s what allows 338Canada to stay reliable—and sustainable—over the long run.)

Let’s get to it.

The only federal numbers published last week came from the usual Nanos Research weekly update. With field dates stretching from December 12 to January 2, Nanos finds the Liberals at 38% nationally, just ahead of the Conservatives at 36%. The NDP remains a distant third at 12%—a marked improvement from the party’s disastrous 6.3% result last April.