338 Sunday Update: It's Been a Blue, Blue Summer

As we enter election year in Canada, the Conservatives continue to hold a double-digit lead nationally, while the Liberals and NDP struggle to close the gap.

One year ago, the 338Canada model projected the federal Conservatives favoured in 164 (of 338) seats, just short of a majority.

The Liberals, which had been sliding in the projection since June that year, had a modest bounce to an average 117 seats. Coincidentally, that week’s numbers (August 20, 2023) were almost “a mirror” projection of the 2021 election results — but this time with the Conservatives in front, and the Liberals in opposition.

After a year of continuous CPC campaigning (and several Liberal blunders), the Conservatives continue to lead voting intentions by double-digits, and, consequently, sit on top of the seat projections by wide margins.

Let us explore today’s 338Canada federal update.

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