338 Sunday Update: It Will Get Late Early for the Liberals

Is there a way back from an abyss that deep? First polling of 2024 offers no solace for Liberals.

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In polling analysis, we often say “We’ll have to wait to see!” when confronted with new trends or “quirky” numbers. We know we are dealing with numbers that fluctuate constantly and that are, if generally accurate as a whole, sometimes off the mark when taken individually.

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January 2024 is now well underway, and, for those counting, this is the sixth consecutive month the Conservatives have been leading the Liberals by double-digits in voting intentions. The little movement the polls did detect in the fall — not only the horse race, but leaders’ perceptions, government satisfaction, feelings towards direction of the country, etc. — have all gotten from bad to worse for the Trudeau Liberals. The whole dashboard is blinking.

Three months in this Liberals slide, I had asked

Éric Grenier

on The Numbers how long such poor numbers could continue before Liberal MPs act upon them. “Could it possibly go on like this until past Christmas?” I wondered.

Well, here we are.

Can it last until Easter?

Let’s get to this week’s projection update.