338 Sunday Update: Is There a Race for Second Place?

We are not there yet, but a scenario where the Bloc wins all the splits and the Liberals tank in Quebec could open up.

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The Earth’s North pole reached its maximum tilt towards the Sun last week, which usually indicates quieter days ahead on the political and polling front in Canada. We stress the “usually” here, because last summer was an obvious exception.

One year ago, shortly after the June by-elections (in NDG—Westmount, Oxford, Portage-Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre), polls from several sources began showing growing Conservative support to then-abnormal levels, reaching the mid- to high-30s nationally. We wondered whether it was a case of wonky summer polling. Then September came. And October. And so on.

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Fast-forward to this past week: The Liberals saw their support at their lowest levels yet from the Angus Reid Institute and Abacus Data (Abacus released last Sunday, and was already included in last week’s update). Highly anticipated federal numbers from Ipsos were also made public this week, and the data offered no solace for the Liberals.

Let’s dive right into the numbers, then update the 338Canada federal projection.