338 Sunday Update: Is a Christmas Election on the Horizon?

Can this Liberal government make it to 2025? We aren't so sure anymore.

The Liberal government survived a first confidence vote in Ottawa last week, the first such test since the NDP pulled off its support in early September. The Bloc Québécois then presented its conditions to ensure the government survives at least through October.

Needless to say, this Parliament hangs by a thread.

I hadn’t given much thought to the possibility of a November campaign and December election, but this outcome can no longer be discarded. (Looking at my calendar… December 9? December 16? Surely not December 23…?)

There is another plausible scenario. On Friday, while I was getting miked up for a clip on Radio-Canada’s newest political morning show L’agenda, political analyst Chantal Hébert told host Alec Castonguay that we shouldn’t overlook a scenario in which the Prime Minister — if discussions with the Bloc and NDP fail by the end of October — decides to prorogue parliament until spring, so that he can resign and give his party enough time to run a hasty leadership race (watch it here at 18:00). In this hypothetical scenario, the House would sit again in February or March 2025 with a new Liberal leader and Prime Minister.

We shall see.

Meanwhile, polls continue to forecast this government’s impending doom. For those among us living outside the Ottawa Bubble and following the data daily, it is increasingly difficult to see any other possible outcome, barring a force majeure.

We add four new polls to the federal projection this week, including some record-breaking leads for the CPC. Let’s review this newest data, then get to the 338Canada update.

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