338 Sunday Update: Hot Summer So Far for Carney and Ford

The latest polls show the federal Liberals are strengthening their lead nationally, and Doug Ford's PCs continue to hold a firm grip on Ontario.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

You know it’s peak summer in Canada when there’s little polling to dissect. But patience, dear maple politicos—normal life shall return soon. Many people, yours truly included, needed a bit of downtime to recover from the wild first six months of 2025 in Canadian politics.

On the docket today: the latest federal polls and a new Ontario survey from Abacus (with an updated projection).

Let’s get right into it.

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No Summertime Blues for the Federal Liberals

Summer polling thus far has not been kind to the Conservatives. While Abacus Data did measure a closer contest earlier this month (43% Liberal, 40% Conservatives), other firms—Nanos Research, Léger, Research Co., and EKOS—have all given the Carney Liberals a double-digit national lead over the Poilievre Conservatives in July (see table below):