338 Sunday Update: Groundhog Summer for Liberals as Conservatives Cruise Ahead

As the CPC solidifies its lead in the polls, the Liberals struggle to shake off high dissatisfaction and poor approval numbers.

Happy Sunday dear readers,

To new subscribers of the 338Canada newsletter (and there are many of you!): Welcome to the 338 Sunday update and thanks for joining in.

Let’s dive right into it.

Two new federal polls were added to the 338Canada model this week.

First, the always much-awaited Léger update measured Conservative support at 41% nationally, 18 points ahead of the Liberals who sit at 23%.

The NDP, whose summer numbers have hovered around the 17-18% mark, climb to 20% in this new Léger poll.

While the gap between the NDP and LPC has, on average, trended near the 5-to-8 point mark over the past months, Léger now has the NDP within striking distance of the Liberals.

West of the Ottawa River, the NDP surpasses the LPC according to this Léger poll.

In Ontario, Léger sees 13-point lead for the Conservatives (40%) over the Liberals (27%). The NDP gets a decent score in the province with 22% — which explains in part why the NDP’s top-line number is higher than recent polls.

In Quebec, Léger sees the Bloc in the lead, but with an underwhelming score. While 31% for the Bloc is enough for first place, it still ranks just below the party’s result in the province in 2021 (32%).

As for the Liberals, Léger measures 27% of support in Quebec, three points ahead of the Conservatives (24%).

In the Prairies, Alberta, and British Columbia, the Conservatives remain comfortably in first place, and the NDP ranks second.

The Conservative lead is 30 points in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 40 points (!) in Alberta and 16 points in B.C.

You can read Léger’s full report here.

Second, the Nanos Research weekly update also puts the Conservatives at 41% from coast to coast, 15 points ahead of the Liberals, while the NDP places third with 17%. As usual, details of the Nanos tracker are paywalled (here), so they are not shared by yours truly.

You can read Nanos’ public report here.

Let’s now get to this week’s 338Canada federal update.

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