338 Sunday Update: From Convention Cheers to By-Election Tests
Mark Carney's Liberals ride high in the polls, but Monday’s highly anticipated by-elections will put their momentum to the test.
Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,
The federal Liberals threw themselves a party last week in Montréal.
With high approval numbers, favourable voting intentions, and yet another CPC MP crossing the floor, Liberals gathered at the Palais des congrès in buoyant spirits. But the focus now shifts quickly to Monday’s by-elections in Terrebonne, University—Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest.
A two-out-of-three result — a highly likely outcome — would give Mark Carney’s Liberals 173 seats in the House of Commons, enough to govern without relying on the Speaker’s tie-breaking vote. A clean sweep would add a small cushion, and perhaps more importantly, reinforce the sense of momentum.
Quick plug: my podcast partner Eric Grenier and I will livestream and analyze the results on Monday night. Bookmark this link an join us!
Let’s recap the polls of the past week and update the 338Canada federal projections.
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Abacus Data: Liberals lead by 6
The latest Abacus Data poll, released this morning, gives the Liberals 44% nationally, compared to 38% for the Conservatives. Abacus remains the only major firm currently placing the CPC in the high 30s — but even here, the regional picture is far from encouraging for the Conservatives.
