338 Sunday Update: Final 2025 Polls Show Cracks in Liberal Support

A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C.

Just as many of us were getting ready for a much-needed breather from the daily grind, several pollsters released their final numbers of the 2025 calendar — and, to varying degrees, they all point in the same direction: the Carney Liberals appear to have taken a pre-holiday hit in public support.

I often warn readers about polls fielded at unconventional times of year, such as the height of summer or long weekends. Collecting a representative sample during these periods can be more challenging, and the results can occasionally get wonky. Could the pre-holiday period fall into that category? There is little firm evidence to make such a claim, but if the LPC/Carney numbers rebound early in 2026, this may become a precedent worth keeping an eye on.

Among federal polls fielded in mid-December, Mainstreet Research measured a one-point Conservative lead; Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies both reported dead heats (38–38 from Liaison; 36–36 from Nanos); while Pallas Data and Ipsos closed the year with a three-point Liberal advantage.

Taken together, we end 2025 in a statistical tie. Pierre Poilievre may have had a difficult year by any electoral standard — losing what many believed was an insurmountable lead, losing the election, and losing his own seat of Carleton — yet the Conservatives still close out the year within striking distance of the Liberals. Let’s dive into the latest numbers.

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