338 Sunday Update: Don't Call It a Coup
After an Ottawa drama that fizzled like a wet firecracker, the Prime Minister carries on.
“You leave me no choice… but to ask you nicely again!” -Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Last week brought moments in politics that make me especially grateful my work is focused on numbers and polling, because the “human element” of politics can sometimes make me roll my eyes all the way to Pluto and back.
Globe and Mail columnist Shannon Proudfoot put it best in her weekend column:
Just before the meeting started, Mr. Trudeau had bounded down the stairs from his office and past the herd of reporters to slip into the caucus room. He did not have the stench of death around him; he didn’t even look like he was having an especially bad day at work. Now we know why: He was about to be mauled by a basket of kittens.
So… please allow me, dear readers, to skip the details of that story and dive straight into the latest numbers.
Abacus Data released its bi-weekly federal numbers early this morning. Fielded October 17-22 (pre-“coup”), the poll puts the Conservatives 22 points ahead of the Liberals nationally: 44% CPC, 22% LPC.
According to Abacus, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 18 points in Ontario and hold a 23-point advantage over the NDP in British Columbia.
In Quebec, the Bloc has put some daylight between itself and its rivals: 38% Bloc, 25% CPC, 24% LPC.
Needless to say, these numbers would lead to a decisive CPC majority should they hold until voting day.
In Abacus’ poll report, Abacus Data CEO writes: “The opinion environment appears to be increasingly locked in. Despite improving economic news, perceptions about the direction of the country are not improving. The government’s approval rating and impressions of the Prime Minister remains as bad as they have ever been.”
Read Abacus’ full report here.
The Nanos Research weekly tracker measured a somewhat closer race. Fielded from Sept. 27 to Oct. 18, the four-week rolling poll puts the Conservatives at 38% nationally, 13 points ahead of the Liberals (25%). As per usual, the regional and demographic breakdown of the poll is available behind a paywall. Read the public report from Nanos here.
Let’s now update the 338Canada federal projection.
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