338 Sunday Update: Conservatives in the Lead at the Starting Line of 2024

Even with their modest pre-Holiday rebound, the Liberals enter 2024 far behind the Conservatives

Happy new year to all 338Canada readers and subscribers! Welcome to this pre-election year on the federal scene. Unless…

---

---

Two new federal polls were released in the past week (See complete list here).

First, the weekly update from the Nanos Research tracker was made publicly available (details paywalled here). Nanos’ top-line numbers generally fall in line with trends of the past month: Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative remain on top with 40% support from coast to coast, while the Liberals take second place with 27%.

As for the NDP, which at one point was tied the Liberals at 22% one month ago, it fell back down to 18% of support. See poll details from Nanos here.

---

---

The second set of federal data came from Spark Advocacy and was released by Spark’s Chief Strategy Officer Bruce Anderson. While the national numbers are almost identical to Nanos’ (CPC 40%, LPC 26%, NDP 19%), some of its regional numbers differed somewhat: Sparks sees a 10-point lead in Ontario for the Conservatives (a much tighter race in what Nanos saw in December) and a notable BQ lead in Quebec (Nanos still has the Liberals on top in Quebec, even though the margins remain modest). See Spark’s release here.

---

---

As we see on the table above and chart below, Conservative support appears to have stabilized at the 40%-mark. In the past month, the Conservatives have ranged from 37% (Abacus Data) to 42% (Mainstreet Research). The current 338Canada weighted average has the CPC at 40%.

---

---

As for the Liberals, after hitting new lows in October and November 2023, their December polls have ranged from 24% (Mainstreet Research) to 28% (Léger). Their current national weighted average stands at 27%.

Let’s now take a look at the regional breakdown and to this week’s 338Canada update! (The main site will be updated later today, but subscribers get early access.)

---

---