338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Hit Record High (Again)

Conservatives remain firmly in majority territory, while the battle for Official Opposition heats up.

Happy Sunday morning and welcome to December, dear 338Canada readers,

The news moved swiftly last week: from Donald Trump’s social media threats of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, to the House of Commons’ vote on a GST break just in time for the holidays, to a blowout victory for the Progressive Conservatives in Nova Scotia.

On the polling front, while we’ve seen a busy fall overall, November was comparatively quieter. However, a flurry of numbers is expected to arrive before the Christmas/Holiday break, providing a snapshot of the federal landscape heading into 2025.

One standout moment came last week with a shocking poll from Mainstreet Research, which gave the Conservatives a staggering 30-point lead (!) from coast to coast — the largest lead for any federal party in... this century?

Let’s dive into the week’s developments, review the latest polling, and update the 338Canada federal projection.

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