338 Sunday Update: Conservative Majority in Jeopardy?

Trend lines have shifted—dramatically. The next federal election could be competitive after all.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers. Welcome to this week’s 338 Sunday update.

After more than 18 months of utter dominance in the polls, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) can now see its main rival within striking distance in the rear-view mirror, and must now gear up for a battle on the campaign trail instead of a coronation.

The 2025 Canadian federal election may be a competitive contest after all. This isn’t a prediction—I’m simply following the numbers.

Throughout 2024, federal polls consistently showed the CPC leading the Liberals by margins of 15 to 25 points (or more) nationally. Up until Justin Trudeau’s resignation on January 6, seat projections even had Pierre Poilievre on track to lead the largest parliamentary caucus in Canadian history. According to the latest data, however, that scenario is no longer on the table.

These sudden shifts in public opinion are uncommon outside of campaigns, and we cannot know whether they will last or revert. However, regular readers of this column know that here at 338 HQ, we focus on analyzing the “now” rather than speculating on an uncertain future. Work with the data you have, not the data you wish you had.

Let’s recap last week’s federal numbers and update the 338Canada projection.

Before we continue, a note on the polling numbers testing LPC leadership candidates: Several polling firms—including Léger, Abacus Data, the Angus Reid Institute, Pallas Data, and others—have measured a potential uptick in Liberal support should Mark Carney win the LPC leadership race. Although these figures are interesting and offer insights into what could unfold in the spring, they remain hypothetical. Hence, they are not included in the current 338 projections.

Once the LPC leadership race concludes on March 9, these numbers will become part of the real picture, and we’ll adjust our model accordingly. In the meantime, these polls suggest that Canadians are at least intrigued by the prospect of Mark Carney as Liberal leader. That’s potentially an important piece of the puzzle, but we’ll get there in time.

Ok, let’s dive into it.

Léger: NDP Slips, LPC Gains, CPC Holds

Léger’s latest federal numbers measured an 8-point gap in the generic ballot, with the Conservatives at 41% and the Liberals at 33%. Meanwhile, the NDP dropped to 11%—its lowest support level since before the 2019 federal election.