338 Sunday Update, Christmas Eve Edition: CPC Ends Year With Significant Lead, But...
A modest tightening in December still leaves Liberals trailing the Conservatives by over 100 seats
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The final federal polls of the year were released last week, and while the weighted 338Canada average shows a modest tightening between the Conservatives and Liberals, every poll released in December has measured the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by double digits (see full list of federal polls here).
The much-awaited final Léger poll of the year placed the Conservative comfortably ahead with 38% nationally, 10 points in front of the Liberals (28%). The NDP took third place with 18%.
In November, Léger had the Conservatives ahead by 14 points, so these new top-line numbers from Léger aligned with last week’s Abacus Data poll — which had also measured the CPC with a 10-point lead.
However, and while we must use much caution with the subsamples of polls (smaller sample = higher uncertainty), some of Léger’s numbers made a few observers’ eyebrows rise an inch or two.
Some were quick to point to the Liberals’ support in Alberta at 26% — the highest level of support for the LPC in Alberta in all available polls since May 2023 (which was also from Léger). Although it does appear a tad too high, it really doesn’t change the overall picture that much (a ten-point swing in Alberta translates into a one-point change on the national numbers). Léger’s unweighted Alberta subsample was n=138 respondents, which, if it were a probabilistic sample, would translate into a ±8% margin of error, 19 times out of 20.
So, no: Léger’s Alberta numbers did not really bother me that much.
The levels of support for the main parties by gender, however, did make me frown.
Among male voters (unweighted n=686), Léger has the Conservatives leading by 8 points (38% CPC, 30% LPC). Among female voters (unweighted n=645), the gap grows to 13 points (39% CPC, 26% LPC). These results are wildly different from the trends we have observed in past months (and years): That the Conservatives are far more likely to get support from men than women.
Here are other December polls, results by gender:
Angus Reid Institute: CPC +30 among men, CPC +5 among women;
Pallas Data: CPC +21 among men, CPC +1 among women;
Mainstreet Research: CPC +27 among men, CPC +10 among women;
But… in Abacus Data’s release last week, party support was virtually identical among men and women:
So… Perhaps Léger and Abacus have measured something other pollsters yet haven’t? To be continued.
Now let’s get to this week’s 338Canada federal update.
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