338 Sunday Update: Chicoutimi, Maybe... But Surely Not Brantford?

Another Conservative resignation will trigger a by-election that could put Pierre Poilievre’s CPC to the test in one of its longtime Ontario strongholds.

🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

The Conservatives will soon lose their eighth MP of this Parliament. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations MP Larry Brock announced that he would step down in September.

Since the Conservatives’ 2025 defeat against the Carney Liberals, four CPC MPs have crossed the floor and join the Liberals — Chris d’Entremont (Acadie—Annapolis) , Michael Ma (Markham—Unionville), Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend) and Marilyn Gladu (Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong).

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC MP Richard Martel accepted Carney’s invitation to join the Senate in July. Saskatchewan MP Cathy Wagantall (Yorkton—Melville) and now Larry Brock have announced their intentions to step down this fall.

And, of course, Damien Kurek vacated his seat of Battle River—Crowfoot so that CPC leader Pierre Poilievre could return to the House after Poilievre’s defeat in his longtime riding of Carleton in the 2025 general election.

While our immediate by-election focus will be on the trio of August 31 contests—including the closely fought Chicoutimi—Le Fjord—a case could be made that the upcoming Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations by-election will be even more important for the Conservatives in the short term.

In 2025, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord was a tight three-way race, with only three points separating first and third place. With Martel gone, it would hardly be a shock to see the Conservatives lose Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. (To which party? That remains anybody’s guess.)

But Brantford? Losing such a reliable Conservative seat in small-city and rural Ontario would be a far more troubling sign for the current CPC leadership.

The last time the Conservatives failed to win this riding—or an earlier version of it—was in 2006, when the Liberals eked out a one-point victory. Conservatives have won it comfortably ever since: in 2008, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025. Last year, Brock received more than 52% of the vote, finishing 11 points ahead of his Liberal challenger.

As for Pierre Poilievre, the numbers continue to show how dramatically his star has faded since Carney took over the Liberals 18 months ago. Yet the Conservative voter base still appears firmly behind him.

In July, the Angus Reid Institute found that 33% of Canadians held a favourable impression of Poilievre, compared with 60% who viewed him unfavourably—a net favourability rating of -27. Among 2025 Conservative voters, however, 76% viewed Poilievre favourably and only 20% unfavourably, for a net score of +56.

In last week’s Nanos Research Preferred Prime Minister tracker (fielded July 10–31, 2026), Poilievre trailed Carney by 38 points—the widest gap between the two since Carney entered federal politics.

Let’s go over the latest polls and update the federal projections.

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