338 Sunday Update: Away from the House, Conservatives Keep Losing Ground

Pollsters disagree on the size of the Liberal lead, but the latest numbers all point to a difficult summer for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, with one month to go before Parliament returns.

🍁Happy Sunday, dear readers, and welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

We were treated to a flurry of new federal polls last week, and while the numbers differed considerably from one another — especially on where the Conservatives currently stand — the overall trend wasn’t particularly friendly to Pierre Poilievre’s CPC.

We always urge caution with “summer polling,” but the latest numbers suggest Poilievre and his MPs may be anxious to get back to Ottawa. So far, time away from the theatre of the House of Commons hasn’t done their polling numbers any favours.

Here below are the latest federal polls from active firms over the past 30 days. Liberal support among decided and leaning voters ranges from 40% with Angus Reid to 47% with Research Co.

The Conservative range is even wider: from just 27% with Research Co. and EKOS to 36% with Angus Reid.

The disagreement between pollsters is therefore notable — from a single-digit lead to an advantage of 15+ points for the Liberals — but notice what they are mostly disagreeing about: the size of the Liberal lead, not whether there is one.

Here is the 338Canada “bullseye chart,” showing the latest Liberal and Conservative numbers compared with the 338Canada weighted polling average.

The much-awaited monthly Léger poll, released last week, showed mostly steady numbers since June: 46% for the Liberals (-2), 34% for the Conservatives (unchanged) and 8% for the NDP (+2).

Léger did measure some erosion in government approval since the spring, but the numbers remain — for now — quite favourable for Mark Carney and the Liberals. According to Léger’s latest, 55% approve of the federal government’s performance, against 38% who disapprove, for a net approval rating of +17.

One data point stands out from this morning’s Abacus Data poll: the possibility that the Liberals have lost significant ground in Quebec to the Bloc Québécois.

Abacus measured Liberal support at 37% in Quebec, with the Bloc close behind at 35%.

Could Abacus have caught the beginning of a genuine shift in Quebec? It’s certainly possible. But with a Quebec subsample of n=298 respondents — and every other recent poll showing a substantially larger Liberal lead — we need more evidence before calling it a trend.

Here below are the latest federal polls in Quebec, including a large-sample Quebec-only poll from Synopsis Recherche that measured a 16-point Liberal lead in the province.

For now, Abacus stands alone in showing such a tight Liberal-Bloc race. We will keep a close eye on Quebec numbers in the coming days to see whether the firm caught an early trend — or merely statistical noise.

Let us now update the 338Canada federal projections.

Based on the latest polling, the Liberals stand, on average, close to their 2025 election result in popular support, while the Conservatives have slipped to their lowest level in the 338Canada tracker since December 2022 — three months into Poilievre’s leadership.

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