338 Sunday Update: Another Liberal Fortress Falls

The Liberals' slide continues.

Welcome to fall 2024. Today is the September equinox, when every place on Earth experiences 12 hours of daytime and 12 hours of nighttime. It is unquestionably my favourite equinox. (Fall is the best of all seasons on this corner of the Earth, even though it ends in tragedy — much like life.)

With this out of the way, let’s dive right into the numbers. Needless to say, last week was an eventful one in Canadian politics.

On the federal front, while it was a quiet week in the polls, the week featured two by-elections, whose results could have lasting consequences: The NDP held off a significant Conservative surge in Elmwood—Transcona, and the Liberals lost what was once a Montreal stronghold in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun to the Bloc Québécois.

It's not just theoretical anymore: The bedrock of Liberal support in Canada is cracking.

Let’s review numbers from the past week, then update the 338Canada federal projection.

[This is the start of the 2024 Fall Election Frenzy, with British Columbia, New Brunswick & Saskatchewan going to the polls. Follow this link to enjoy our special offer: 20% off annual subscriptions.]