338 Sunday Update: All Eyes on Chicoutimi (and Tariffs)

Three federal by-elections are set for August 31, as new polling suggests Canadians continue to back Mark Carney's handling of trade relationships.

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

A surprise announcement from the PMO changed this morning's plans. Prime Minister Mark Carney has called three federal by-elections for August 31, including one that could become the most closely watched race of the summer.

We'll begin there before turning to the latest chapter in the never-ending Canada–U.S. trade saga.

All eyes on Chicoutimi

The Prime Minister's Office published a brief press release this morning announcing three federal by-elections will be held on August 31 in the ridings of North Vancouver—Capilano, Beaches—East York, and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

Barring a dramatic reversal of fortune over the next month—that is, a sharp decline in Liberal support—the Liberals should be in a comfortable position to retain North Vancouver—Capilano and Beaches—East York.

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, however, will almost certainly be the one to watch.

In the 2025 federal election, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord produced one of the closest races in the country, with just three points separating first from third place. Conservative MP Richard Martel held the seat with 34% of the vote, while both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals finished close behind at 31% apiece.

Current data continue to point toward another razor-thin three-way contest between the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc Québécois. While the Conservatives could be hurt by Martel's departure—he was appointed to the Senate earlier this month—voters in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord have shown little long-term loyalty to any single party in this century.

Although the riding boundaries have evolved over the years, voters here have elected Liberal, Conservative, Bloc and NDP MPs since the 2000 federal election.

On Friday, TVA Nouvelles published a Bloc-commissioned Pallas Data poll of the riding conducted July 18 (n=317). It showed a statistical three-way tie: Bloc 30%, Liberals 28%, Conservatives 26%, with 13% of respondents still undecided.

Here below is the latest 338Canada projection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord:

Because Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is an overwhelmingly francophone riding, it could provide another useful test of Liberal support in francophone Quebec, only a few months after the LPC's by-election victory in Terrebonne.

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