338 Sunday Update: All Eyes on Battle River–Crowfoot... Sort of

Pierre Poilievre set for an easy win in rural Alberta, but his national numbers aren’t as sunny.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

The rhythm of polling has understandably slowed in recent weeks, and we should enjoy a rather quiet July, politics-wise. Still, there remain interesting storylines to follow—chief among them Pierre Poilievre’s expected by-election victory in the rural Alberta riding of Battle River–Crowfoot, scheduled for Monday, August 18.

“Expected victory” indeed, as no available data suggests anything but an easy CPC win in this deeply conservative part of Alberta. While by-elections can be unpredictable due to several uncertain variables—voter enthusiasm, lower turnout, leader effect, a potential long slate of candidates, summertime distractions, etc.—former CPC MP Damien Kurek won the riding by a staggering 70-point margin last April.

Using 2019 and 2021 election results transposed onto the new electoral map, Kurek’s margins of victory were 80 and 61 points, respectively.

In short, this is as safe a CPC seat as it gets for Pierre Poilievre.

So while it’s safe to state that Poilievre should win the by-election, his result could still be a story. If he manages to tally 75% or more of the vote on August 18, the takeaway will be that the parachuted 20+ year-former Ottawa MP stuck the landing—and observers will quickly (and rightfully) move on.

However, what if Poilievre posts a lukewarm result? Say, 60%—20 points below Kurek’s last tally? A win is a win for any MP, but would such a showing matter in the crucial months ahead for the Conservative leader, especially as he faces a confidence vote from members at the CPC convention in January?